Applied Econometric Time Series

The paper reinvestigates the relationship between real per capita GDP and terrorism. We use nonlinear smooth transition regressions to establish the relationship between real per capita GDP and terrorism for eight alternative terrorism samples, accounting for venue, perpetrators’ nationality, terrorism type, and the time period. Our nonlinear estimates are shown to be favored over estimates using linear or quadratic income determinants of terrorism. These nonlinear estimates are robust to additional controls.

DATA  CODE  Appendix  DOFile

The paper uses a numer of different methods to demonstrate that the relationship between terrorism and poverty is nonlinear. Notably, terrorism is clustered in the lower-middle income countries. 

Appendix

We update Enders, Sandler, and Gaibulloev to include data through the fourth quarter of 2010 and provides analysis of terrorism at the regional level. We show that domestic terrorism Granger causes transnational attacks, but the reverse is not generally true. 

DATA  VAR CODE

This article devises a method to separate the Global Terrorism Database (GTD) into transnational and domestic terrorist incidents. This decomposition is essential for the understanding of some terrorism phenomena when the two types of terrorism are hypothesized to have different impacts.

Domestic Data    Transnational Data 

Table 1 Code       VAR Code

An early application allowing the intercept and the AR(1) term to vary over time. The paper investigates terrorist incidents using a linear model with pre-specified interventions that represent significant policy impacts. Next, a threshold autoregressive (TAR) model is applied to the data. TAR estimates indicate that increases above the mean are not sustainable during high-activity eras, but are sustainable during low-activity eras. By applying a Fourier approximation to the nonlinear estimates, we get improved results.

DATA CODE